Good Coming!Rebar Period Price Tail Plate Strong Pull Up ! Rally Last?

- Dec 05, 2018-

Affected by favorable factors such as the easing of Sino-US trade friction and interest, the black  line of the domestic commodity market has generally risen recently. The prices of double coke and iron ore futures have both exceeded 4%, and have been in the downward trend of the rebar. Also ushered in two consecutive trading days of gains. Relative to other black line varieties, the rebar market is more cautious to reflect the information.


On Tuesday (December 4), the futures price of the rebar 1905 contract opened at 3306 yuan / ton at Shanghai Futures Exchange. During the trading of the economy, the price of futures fell by more than 1 yuan, and the futures price rose rapidly in the afternoon. By the end of the close, 41 yuan per ton or 1.23 yuan, The closing price is 3374 yuan / ton. The two-day rally may have ignited renewed expectations among some investors for higher rebar prices, but it is now thought that the bottom of the rebar will be formed, perhaps a little too soon.


Although months of trade friction have temporarily eased and domestic steel and steelmaking raw materials have risen, reflecting good export prospects in the future, strong supply pressures remain a major factor in suppressing future price rises in rebar steel. Environmental restrictions on production and increased profits have led to a substantial increase in enterprise output in recent months. When expectations of a slowdown in downstream consumption increased, it brought new problems to domestic steel trade, and after a period of falling spot prices, Traders are worried about later market trends, mostly unwilling to stock up on steel. According to data tracked by Steel House, domestic traders hold threads Steel stocks fell to 2.94 million tonnes, the lowest since December 2017.


Compared with previous years, this year's steel rebar prices, whether in price or traders profits, there has been a significant increase. Iron ore prices in the upper reaches have been running in a stable range when the price of rebar is high. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a working forum on iron ore operations in 2018, according to the ministry's official website. The representatives discussed the construction of iron ore pricing mechanism and the operation of spot platform, put forward some problems and suggestions to improve the price forming machine system, and studied and tested the trend of iron ore market in the future. Overall, compared with previous years, the iron ore market this year Stable operation and reasonable price range.


In the recent rise in futures prices at the same time, rebar spot prices mainly to maintain stability, according to the December 4 China Steel Network released information shows that the Tangshan market steel prices are basically stable at 3330 yuan / ton; The price of steel in Tianjin market is basically stable, the high line is slightly lower, the steel thread is basically stable, and the price of scrap steel in Shanghai market is up 30 yuan per ton; Iron ore prices in Qingdao are mainly stable, with some varieties rising and falling. On December 4, data on steel inventories released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed no increase or decrease. Overall, after the futures market rose for the second consecutive day, the domestic spot steel market reacted flat.


The factors affecting the price of rebar in the future can be said to be mixed. With the gradual landing of many infrastructure projects and the easing of trade frictions, the foreign trade situation and investment indicators that drive the economy show signs of improvement, which will support the future price. But in the near future, consumption continues to bear pressure and the contraction of manufacturing expansion, the real estate market in the context of regulation and control can effectively ensure steel demand, are the factors that have to be faced. The weak volatility in the domestic steel market may not have changed in the short term, with little room for decline in the medium to long term after a gradual turnaround in the external economy, amid high inventories. Monday (1 A pullback in the price of rebar futures on February 3 may also point to some uncertainty about the future of the current trade friction between China and the United States, which may take a long time to rise. (source: hundred)

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